Strategy and Tactics

The good book is full of references to a supernatural God who intervenes in human affairs but there are also plenty of ideas for military strategists. The use of loud music and instrumentalists to create a distraction (Joshua), The use of a sling to attack a physically superior opponent (David), Capitalization on superstition and dreams to force compromise in the face of a superior foe (Gideon). 

So what does the play book look like for the ruling government and the opposition?

It has taken a few years for the opposition to realize that the ruling government cannot be dealt with using a weak opposition.
We have been through the stage at which a possible replacement was found and given a measure of space to run as a sole candidate for two terms.

Revelations by a prominent renegade general have helped fuel hopes for governance and vindication in the heart of many hopefuls but this is a little misplaced.

I think that we will look to our neighbors.

A seasoned man could rise, preferably from a tribe that ruled before, with some skill in finance and with a cool head. He will distinguish himself from his peers as one who was silent in the worst of circumstances and who watched his peers do their measure of jail time while he maintained a incredible focus.

He will be allowed to rule for two terms even if his second term will be controversial.
During his reign the opposition will be strengthened and also weaned into a position of weakness. Mergers will occur and coalitions will be formed and prominent people will abandon their closely held ideals for political expedience.

The result is that Uganda, will be forced to deal with the complex convoluted politics of coalitions in which the code word is compromise.  

The ten years as well as the previous thirty or so years will emerge as merely seat warming years for a younger man identified possibly at independence and one who was groomed in the background. He will be from one of the major tribes, a son of a prominent leader with a measure of prominence and appeal.

Even if his appearance will be a breath of fresh air, his rule will be largely ceremonial and his administration will be marred by an old guard as well as big government which will be used in an attempt to render him powerless.

Maybe there are signs in place for this and other similar moves. As it stands, the National Resistance Movement is currently frayed with calls for reform from some of its more youthful and naturally vocal leaders.

The battle for reform has shaken the party to its core and even spilled over into parliament. The Speaker and her deputy have found themselves cornered as they have had to mediate between the party interests and those of elected officials. But names have been made and positions stated.

Regionalism has also taken center stage as the resistance movement fights to establish itself as a movement of the people and one not split by the challenges of ethnicity.  While Northern Uganda has remained largely an opposition stronghold (UPC), we have also seen the rise of independents (and the consequent rejection of party politics) as well as the loss of strategic NRM strongholds (with some analysts wondering, if association with Big Hat has driven some of the dissipation).  

The opposition on the other hand has taken on a larger activist role possibly borrowing from some of the major movements for change in Northern Africa. We are yet to see a corresponding move by bloggers and techies and other social media movers and shakers. What we have seen is a government whose ears are opening and whose eyes are focused on cities and now cyber laws (under the guise of security).
The demonstrations have been effective in so far as they have commanded the attention of media and thrust some major personalities into the public space. But in the eyes of the government, these have been disruptions designed to ruin the reputation of the government and impede the progress of development.
The unfortunate thing is that the opposition has squandered its fifteen minutes of fame by turning its attention to government and its failures instead of speaking broadly about its plans and highlighting its positions.